A 58% disclosure forecast—and the ownership test that matters before the next campaign is named.

Map the trust chain, measure the containment gap, and test the three token failures most likely to survive a routine response.

Two incidents appear to clear the bar. Govern AI credentials by replay value and blast radius before access becomes impact.

A practical operating model for package admission, runtime detection, and proving downstream impact before the trail goes cold.

The attacker needs sustained, useful output. Defenders can turn that dependency into friction across the access ecosystem.

Shared intrusion logistics can be a better chokepoint than one APT—if defenders can prove real control-plane dependence.

Our 45% forecast—and the public signals that would show private cyber effects have moved from authority to action.