A new federal framework gives vetted private companies a route to support operations against foreign cyber-enabled criminal groups. The tempting conclusion is that “hack back” has arrived. The more defensible conclusion is narrower: government has created an option whose use depends on contracts, vetting, written approval, liability boundaries, intelligence access, and secrecy.
AlphaHunt puts a 45% probability on qualifying public proof by September 8, 2027. The forecast resolves Yes only if evidence names a government-confirmed CE-TCO Program participant or attributes a completed Cyber Effects Operation. Surveillance alone and approved-but-unfinished effects do not qualify. That distinction matters for analysts piecing together procurement notices, testimony, filings, and official statements: an administrative trail can show motion without showing execution. In cyber policy, even the paperwork needs attribution.
Read the forecast.