We’re revising the Akira hospital disruption forecast down to 2%. The risk is real, but the question is narrower than it looks.

LockBit got Cronos’d. BlackCat caught a DOJ wrench to the teeth. Cl0p is still hanging around the enterprise software aisle like it owns the place. So… is it really next, or are we just recycling takedown fan fiction?

Ransom is a tactic. Liquidity is the strategy.

Our new forecast asks: will ShinyHunters make more in 2H 2026 by selling SaaS access/data than by getting paid? Signals say yes. 🕵️‍♂️💸☁️

2025’s priciest breaches weren’t “elite malware.” They were tokens + SaaS + downtime 🪙⏱️🔥
If your revoke MTTR is measured in days, the attackers already won.

20% odds Akira triggers a 7-day ambulance diversion at a 10+ hospital system by end of 2026. 🚑 Still feeling “low risk”?

Cl0p forecast: 20% chance their leak sites go dark by Apr 22, 2026—only if there’s a seizure banner or ≥14 days down w/ LE attribution. Cronos shows it’s doable; Hydra-style mirrors are the boss fight

Oracle EBS got in-memory Java loaders, not lockerware. Patch CVE-2025-61882, lock egress, hunt TemplatePreviewPG with TMP|DEF + XSL-TEXT|XML. Extortion rides in via “pubstorm.”