Your city probably won’t lose water for days because of hackers.
Probably. 💧
Our forecast puts a cyber-driven 48+ hour outage hitting 500k+ people at ~10% by end of 2026 — up from a ~3% base rate and zero known events at that scale so far. Meanwhile, OT attacks with physical impact are surging and nation-state/hacktivist hits on ICS nearly doubled in recent quarters.
So are we overreacting, or quietly underestimating a low-frequency, career-ending risk?
In this forecast we:
- Pin down strict “what actually counts” criteria for a city-scale outage
- Walk base rates vs the current hacktivist + OT trendline
- Call out concrete signals that should move your probability up or down
If you had to brief your mayor, board, or CIO on “10% odds the taps go quiet,” how would you frame it?
Read the full forecast + resolution criteria:
https://blog.alphahunt.io/how-close-are-we-to-a-cyber-driven-citywide-water-outage
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#CyberSecurity #OTSecurity #CriticalInfrastructure #WaterSecurity #AlphaHunt