Prediction check: will RedNovember pop a true 0-day in 2026? We’re at 29% (base rate 25%). Why not higher: they mostly run PoC-first N-day edge hits and hide behind rebrands.
Why not lower: China-nexus crews already burned Ivanti 0-days in ’24–’25, and edge boxes keep bleeding (see recent Cisco ASA campaign).
What signal would move you ±10 pts—pre-advisory exploitation tied by ≥2 vendors, a novel RN malware family, or a clean cross-vendor lineage map?
Read the forecast + watch actions:
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