BRICKSTORM intel just landed: PRC actors camping in vCenter/ESXi + Windows. 🧱🕵️‍♂️
F5 source-code drama raises the long-run 0-day odds, but the calendar + attribution lag are savage.
Our final call: 11% UNC5221 gets publicly tied to a new 0-day before Dec 31. 🎯

Will hackers actually turn off a city’s water, or is that just conference-slide horror fiction? 💧🤔

We put a number on it: ~10% odds of a 48+ hour, 500k+ outage by end of 2026.

20% odds Akira triggers a 7-day ambulance diversion at a 10+ hospital system by end of 2026. 🚑 Still feeling “low risk”?

Edge casinos pay out on N-days… but the jackpot pops only when the house isn’t looking.

UNC5221 is an edge-focused PRC espionage actor repeatedly tied to zero-days (Ivanti 2023–2025; prior NetScaler). Edge products remained a major zero-day target in 2024. But public attributions typically lag exploitation by weeks, and the window is short...

RedNovember likely stays fast-follow on edge devices using N-days and public PoCs, not 0-days. China-nexus peers show willingness to burn edge 0-days, so a pivot is plausible but not base case...